COVID-19 Perceptions and Perspectives from Manitobans (May 19, 2020)
Back to normal is not in the near future for most Manitobans
As of May 14, Manitobans are not planning to return to “normal” any time soon.
We asked Manitobans when they think that they would be comfortable gathering with others if there is no vaccine available for COVID-19. We explained that, if public gatherings are allowed, there would be some other measures in place to help stop the spread of the virus.
Even now, only 34% of Manitobans are comfortable going into someone’s home to visit with a few family members or friends. By June, 58% would feel comfortable, and by the end of the summer, 77%. The younger the Manitoban, the more likely they are to be comfortable now; for example, among those aged 18 to 29, almost half (47%) say they are comfortable now, compared with just 27% of those 65 years and older.
If the gathering size is increased slightly, far fewer Manitobans are comfortable getting together, even with family or friends. Only 15% report that they would be comfortable attending a party at someone’s home with 10 other family members or friends. By the end of the summer, this will increase to only 59%.
Only 3% of Manitobans are currently comfortable attending a relatively small public event such as a concert. It will not be until the end of the summer that a significant number of Manitobans would be comfortable attending a 50-person event, and even then, only 22% say that they would be comfortable. Even this coming fall, when many events are scheduled to restart, less than half (43%) would feel comfortable going.
No large gatherings until summer of 2021
Data suggests that Manitobans will not feel comfortable attending larger events until the spring or summer of 2021.
Even for family events, such as weddings involving 100 people, only 19% would feel comfortable attending by the end of this summer, although almost 4 in 10 (36%) might feel comfortable by the fall of 2020. Even by winter, only half (48%) would feel comfortable.
Larger public events of 300 to 10,000 all see very small levels of comfort this fall and even through to the winter of 2020-21.
For a concert or theatre production with an audience of 300, only 1 in 5 would feel comfortable attending this fall, and only 1 in 3 by the winter. Come the spring and summer of 2021, this will increase to just over half (55%). The other half say that it would take longer for them to be comfortable or they simply do not know.
The pattern is similar for concerts or theatre productions involving an audience of 1,000; only 1 in 5 would feel comfortable attending by the winter of 2020-21, and only 46% by the summer of 2021.
For a live sporting event or concert of 10,000, only 17% would feel comfortable by the winter, and only 38% by the summer of 2021.
PRA conducted the survey from May 11–14, 2020 using its Manitoba Panel. In total, 1,640 Manitobans completed the survey.
Because this sample is a non-probability sample, no error rate can be calculated. A random population survey of this size would yield an error rate of ± 2.5% (19 times out of 20).
As any sample may not represent the population perfectly, PRA corrects statistically for discrepancies in gender, age, and income to ensure the sample corresponds as closely as possible to Statistics Canada information.
PRA Inc. sponsored these questions independently.
No other organization, public or private, funded this study in whole or in part.
For more information about the research, please contact Nicholas Borodenko, partner, at firstname.lastname@example.org
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